| 2009-10 Season Preview: Golden State Warriors Authored by Daniel Leroux - October 15, 2009 - 10:17 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -8.2, 23rd
Key Additions: Mikki Moore, Acie Law
Key Subtractions: Jamal Crawford, Marco Belinelli
Key Rookies: Stephen Curry
Typically, I’d prefer to do one of these in the (Point-Swingman-Frontcourt) pattern of the other Season Previews, but the Warriors’ situation just does not lend itself to drawing the lines there, so I’ll use a different organization method.
Backcourt: As it did last year, the success of the Golden State Warriors depends on Monta Ellis and his development. Last season, the Dubs went 12-13 in games where Monta played (.480 winning %) and 17-40 in games where he did not (.297 winning %). Naturally, he was not the only factor in this change, but it does give some sense of his impact on the team. The big question for Monta, other than if he’ll be on the team at the end of the year, is what his offensive role is in the long term. If Monta can prove that his best role is as a lead guard, it opens up a world of possibilities for management, especially considering the current roster. However, I feel that his best niche will likely be as an off-guard, which puts a great deal more pressure on the other pivotal backcourt player..
Stephen Curry’s size effectively limits him to guarding PG’s in the NBA, but time will tell where he fits in with the offense. He has solid court vision and passing ability for someone who was not the primary ballhandler for most of his college career, which helps. The biggest change from Curry’s final year at Davidson to the Warriors is in his usage. Last year, he was the alpha and the omega of Davidson’s offense. On Golden State, he could keep himself on the floor for a long, long time if he puts that same energy into creating for others and controlling the flow of the offense. He has most of the tools in the toolbox, but it will take some time to see how it all comes together.
The rest of the backcourt provides its own intrigue. Anthony Morrow has shown a simply incredible ability to score at the next level. His True Shooting % was an astonishing .558, which was tied for fifth among Shooting Guards who played more than 20 minutes a game (32nd in the entire NBA of guys playing more than 20 MPG). Interestingly, Morrow also posted the highest Net PER on the entire team despite his defense needing a great deal of work. CJ Watson will likely be on the outside looking in for much of this season, unless there is a major personnel move that primarily affects the backcourt. Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton should have even more trouble getting on the floor, but there is definitely a value having a player like Speedy in the locker room considering the lack of in-game PG experience on this roster.
Forwards: Like the backcourt with Mr. Ellis, the frontcourt success hinges on Anthony Randolph. In another parallel with Monta, it is not definite what position Anthony will play in the long term, though it appears to be a clearer call here. Until Randolph develops a true mid-range game, the PF slot in Nellieball is a great place to have him. That said, it would not surprise me in the least if Nelson starting thinking about a guy with Randolph’s length playing small forward and just started salivating like crazy, so who knows what we’ll see from time to time.
Stephen Jackson is the perennial wild card and sure seems to be on his way out, at least for now. When he works at it, Jack can impact the game on both sides of the ball, which is a true rarity on this team. The irony in his dissatisfaction with the team is that he would be one of the most movable players around if he just had not signed his extension- what contending team wouldn’t be interested in him on an expiring contract? Yet that is not meant to be unless he pulls a Derek Fisher (agreeing to void his contract), which appears outside of the realm of possibility.
Corey Maggette has his niche fairly well established and is on the team for the foreseeable future. Assuming Randolph takes control of the PF starting slot and the minutes to go along with it, we should see Corey drawing fouls at SF far more, especially if Jackson really is on the way out.
Kelenna Azubuike is another player deserving of an opportunity to make an impact. The holder of the 2nd best Roland Rating on the team last year, Kelenna should get minutes at both of the swingman slots this year. While it may seem like he could be the odd man out early on, the Warriors are a team in perpetual flux whether the changes come from injury, personnel changes, or Nellie’s rotation decisions. Having Azubuike gives the team a sort of elastic-man in terms of minutes, someone who can bridge the gap of any Monta or Jackson trade or an injury anywhere from 1-4 (thanks to the versatility of the rest of the guys too).
There are not even enough minutes at the present for those four, so the rest of the forwards will have some hard sledding for the time being. As a huge fan of Brandan Wright’s potential, it was pretty devastating to hear about the severity of his newest injury. The kid should bring a lot to the table down the road, but sadly I am not sure it will be in Oakland. Wright’s path looks exactly like that of so many bigs who come into the league young- tease potential with the original team, then move because management sours on you only to blow up with team number two. Beyond Wright, Mikki Moore may get a chance to play some minutes if the injury bug keeps on rolling and actually is a solid fit for the Nellieball 4. I would be surprised to see Devean George or Shaun Pruitt get much burn, but stranger things have happened where Nellie is concerned.
Centers: It is time for Andris Biedrins to turn even more of his potential into production. It is worth remembering that Beans is still only 23 years old- the same age David West was when he played in his first NBA game and the age Jermaine O’Neal finally blossomed. While his efficient offense is a help to Golden State, where Biedrins needs to bring it the most is on the defensive end. One way of dealing with a defensively limited backcourt is to make sure that penetrators have someone to fear at the rim, and ideally Andris can become that player.
Luckily, he has a great one to learn from in Ronny Turiaf. While Turiaf may have originally gained attention from NBA fans as a great medical comeback and the best bench cheerleader of his generation while with the Lakers, he has shown on the Warriors that he is a legitimate rotation player in this league. While he takes a few ill-advised jumpers, Turiaf is a great example of how knowing and embracing a role can help a player’s development (as is the Birdman). A healthy combination of Biedrins and Turiaf could help alleviate some of the defensive problems that have severely limited the team’s upside in terms of regular season wins.
Forecast: There is no harder team in the NBA to project for the coming season than Golden State. If Anthony Randolph proves himself worthy of consideration for the Most Improved Player Award, Monta Ellis finds his role, Stephen Curry keeps the magic, and the rotation is settled reasonably somehow, this absolutely could be a lower seed playoff team. But what makes the Warriors the Warriors is that it is staggeringly unlikely that all of the dominoes fall like that. One of the major issues that will have to play out is what Nelson does with the rotation- a decision to give heavy minutes to Jackson, Curry, or one of the swingmen (Morrow, Kelenna) would dramatically affect the trajectory of the season. Plus, his voice in personnel decisions should provide another major storyline for 2009-2010. The real goal for this season should be the development of the young players and the definition of roles for the next few seasons. I’ll put their win total around 33, with a swing of 10 games in either direction not being a surprise. |
