| Auditing The Warriors 2007-08 Season Authored by Christopher Reina - April 25, 2008 - 8:09 pm
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Game in and game out, this Warriors' team was better than the Cinderella's of 06-07, but they ran out of gas because of their lack of depth and were unfortunately played in a historically scary Western Conference.
As a team, the Warriors were 15th in FIC differential per game with 0.2, which was a +2.6 per game improvement.
Player: Overall Rank, Season FIC, Per 40 FIC, Reina Value
- Baron Davis: 11th, 1,304, 16.3, +0%
The preseason MVP talk made me think that the 2007 playoffs had made everyone around the Warriors' camp believe Baron was every bit as good as he personally thinks he is, but as the All-Star break I would have probably slotted him fourth or fifth in MVP voting. His exclusion from the All-Star squad spoke more as much about how much the coaches dislike him than it did the sickening glut of quality point guards in the Western Conference.
He shot the ball better in the second half of the season, but his assists per game dropped from 8.4 in November down to 6.6 in March and April. Even though he played in all 82 games, Davis was playing better down the stretch last season due to this season's wear and tear.
Davis is due to make $17.8 million next season, but he would be extremely wise to negotiate a new long-term deal because it is impossible for his value to be any better than it is at this very instant.
- Monta Ellis: 24th, 1,092, 14.2, +1,682%
Making just $770k, Ellis was the NBA's best bargain as he 'deserved' to make better than $14 million. The jump from winning the MIP to this season was just about as big and even though he won't win the MIP two years running, it really wouldn't be out of the question. He became a more confident finisher, a more efficient scorer (raising his FG% almost 6 points) and a better rebounder. His defensive play clearly left a lot to be desired but he's quick enough to get key deflections and steals.
Ellis was also the only player not to wear down towards the end and he averaged 4.1 points per game more after the All-Star break and also took on a heavier workload in the second game of back-to-backs.
Whatever it takes to re-sign him the Warriors will pay as he is now the franchise's most valuable commodity.
- Andris Biedrins: 44th, 949, 18.3, +327%
Goose was the Warriors' most productive per minute player this season, but he only played 27.4 minutes per game and was limited due to an appendectomy. He played in just 52% of the Warriors' total minutes and they need his rebounding on the floor much more than that next season. Out of all of the regulars he had the best +/- per 48 with +4.8.
Biedrins will be a restricted free agent and will be priority 1B behind Monta even though Wright's looming presence makes him potentially less valuable.
- Stephen Jackson: 67th, 817, 11.4, +31%
Jackson had a career year, but was decidedly better in the early going when he was playing All-Defensive caliber defense and penetrating into the lanes. As the season progressed he fell in love with the 3-pointer more and more, shooting eight per game in March (though he did hit 44.5% of those attempts that month).
The decision to anoint him Captain Jack was a wise one and he has clearly matured as a ballplayer and a person while with the Warriors.
With $7.14 million due to him next season before a walk year of $7.65 million, Jackson will be a proverbial bargain even if his production does taper off.
- Al Harrington: 98th 696, 12.7, -24%
The Warriors have plenty of spot up shooters, so they need a grittier rebounder at his position. I don't see his rebound rate ever really increasing at this stage of his career and the $9.2 million he is owed next season is a lot for someone who is only valuable in certain match-up situations.
- Kelenna Azubuike: 154th, 487, 11.3, +518%
When your best bench player is a D-League find, then you know the team severely lacks depth. Azubuike was a $687k bargain this season and will certainly opt out and forego the $797k he's due next season. Re-signing Azubuike will be a priority as he is a versatile heady player who is often (unfortunately) the team's best rebounder on the floor.
- Matt Barnes: 171st, 451, 12.7, +25%
The $3 million Barnes made this season was hopefully invested wisely because he's looking at a severe paycut. Nellie wasn't interested in playing him down the stretch, but he actually improved as a rebounder and passer, but if you struggle hitting open shots in this system then your usefulness is nil.
- Mickael Pietrus: 218th, 355, 10.8, -24%
Pietrus desperately wanted out of Golden State over the summer as a restricted free agent and after an inconsistent 66 games of his fifth season, his Warriors' days are likely over. That tremendous promise he showed during his second NBA season never really materialized and I'll be sorry to see a guy who used to my favorite Warrior depart, but it's for the best for everyone. He's been a wing in power forward's clothing for too long now.
To give Pietrus credit, he did play well down the stretch and the five-man unit of Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Biedrins and Pietrus was the 8th best combination in all of basketball, even better than Boston's starting five.
- Brandan Wright: 295th, 140, 15.3, -43%
Last June I was convinced Wright was the third best prospect in the draft behind Greg Oden and Kevin Durant; a season in, I undervalued Al Horford, but the gap between Wright and Durant was less significant than originally predicted. I believe Seattle, Milwaukee and Minnesota would each prefer Wright over Jeff Green, Yi Jianlian and Corey Brewer. He did play limited minutes, but his 15.3 per 40 FIC was amongst rookie leaders.
- Austin Croshere: 299th, 137, 12.0, +60%
Injuries limited Croshere to just 44 games, but he became an efficient scorer again. For a team like Golden State, they needed him to be a more consistent rebounder.
- CJ Watson: 339th, 81, 8.8, +225%
Watson played about as well as you could expect from a D-League back up point guard. The Warriors need an upgrade at this slot for 2008-09.
- Chris Webber: 381th, 40, 12.8, +0%
The Webber experiment wasn't the outright disaster it is often described as, but it ended up being a $362k waste of time.
- Marco Belinelli: 387th, 34, 5.6, -49%
Belinelli refused to be sent down to the D-League and he instead rotted on the bench as a cheerleader, seeing the floor just 33 times as a rookie. He can certainly score, but his defense is atrocious and would have surely improved with some Bakersfield experience.
Unless Belinelli can snap his fingers and become a point guard or get strong enough to play the three, he will be buried behind Monta indefinitely.
- Patrick O'Bryant: 392th, 32, 12.8, -72%
O'Bryant's 07-08 began with the Warriors' decision to decline his third-year option, which essentially met he was a dead man walking in Golden State all season long. His per minute numbers aren't exactly horrible, but he needs a fresh start in a system better suited to his game.
Even when I interviewed him the day before his draft, he was clearly not a guy who had a fire within himself to become a great basketball player. He defines what I like to call 'The Apathetic Center,' who would prefer to be just about anything else but a basketball player if he wasn't 7-0.
A brief list of useful players taken after O'Bryant in 2006: Rajon Rondo, Jordan Farmar, Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Kyle Lowry.
- Kosta Perovic: 418th, 11, 11.1, -87%
Perovic came over from Partizan Belgrade this season and predictably saw very little floor time, appearing in just seven games, all of which came following D.J. Mbenga's release. His best performance of the season came in the infamous Phoenix game when he scored four points and had five rebounds in 13 minutes.
It is difficult to determine what the Warriors really have in Perovic, but Nellie likes him a whole lot more than POB.
- Troy Hudson: 422nd, 10, 4.3, +0%
Hudson played in just nine games for the Warriors before suffering a hip injury that forced him to have season-ending surgery on January 10th and his career is likely now over.
The loss of a veteran point guard who could have rested Davis for 10 minutes a night turned out to be more debilitating in April than it initially appeared.
- How Were The Warriors Acquired?
Bellinelli, Biedrins, Ellis, O'Bryant, Perovic, Pietrus and Wright were draft selections.
Azubuike, Barnes, Croshere and Watson were free agent signings.
Davis, Harrington and Jackson were acquired via trades.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value which determines the value of players in relation to their contract. |
