| Assessing The Warriors At The Midway Point Authored by Payam Jahromi - January 29, 2006 - 4:41 pm
Through two games past the official halfway point of the season, let’s take a quick look back at what has happened, then I’ll tell you what the Warriors need to do to make the playoffs.
After 43 games, they are 20-23, next-to-last in the Pacific Division.
We all know about the strong November (11-6), average December (6-8) and dreadful January (3-9), meaning the Warriors have progressively gotten worse.
The schedule has been tougher, but there is no doubt the Warriors have lost some confidence. And depending on what you believe, there could be a power struggle between Mike Montgomery and Baron Davis. Then again, these things only come up when you’re losing.
Now we have a month of trade deadline talks that should keep things entertaining. If the Warriors continue to struggle, we all know Chris Mullin is not afraid to pull the trigger.
There will be plenty of time over the next month to discuss different trade scenarios, so for now I’ll focus on what needs to happen if the Warriors want to turn things around.
Stay Healthy: First, let’s start with injuries. The Warriors have been relatively healthy prior to the recent injuries to starters Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy. Both Mickael Pietrus and Ike Diogu missed some time, and rookie Chris Taft has battled a bad back all year, but you can’t point to health as a factor for why the team has struggled.
This is not the time for key players to miss significant time. Let’s hope Richardson and Dunleavy come back soon. It’s been nice to see some of the young players, namely Monta Ellis, getting more minutes. But if this team wants to compete for a playoff spot, they can’t afford any big injuries.
Backcourt Consistency: The Warriors need their backcourt – and this includes bench players such as Derek Fisher, Pietrus and Ellis – to consistently play well. The strength of this team is its backcourt, and when Baron and company struggle, so do the Warriors.
Not so many 3’s: Baron is the catalyst and it all starts with him. When he’s looking to penetrate and get to the basket, good things happen. When he settles for 3-pointers, it creates a chain reaction and it suddenly becomes a 3-point shooting contest.
When this happens, players tend to stand around and look for the easy way out. This is where the guards must make a conscious effort to drive to the basket. The Warriors play better when they attack the rim. Everybody knows this.
Get to foul line – and make a free-throw: Despite their poor foul shooting, the Warriors still need more attempts at the line. They rank 18th in free-throw attempts and 22nd in free-throws made (26th in percentage).
Baron leads the team in attempts per game at 5.3. Only five other teams – the Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Suns and Kings – have situations where their leader in free-throw attempts is less than the Warriors’ (though you can take the Kings off that list with Ron Artest, who got to the line six times in his last full season).
Pietrus is the best on the team at getting to the line. If you project his minutes to equal Baron’s or Richardson’s, he would average around seven attempts per game.
Then there’s the problem of actually making the free-throws. Baron, Richardson and Pietrus are all currently under 70 percent, which is totally unacceptable.
The trio combines for 15.7 3-point attempts per game. If they’re good enough to attempt that many contested shots from 23 feet away, they should be able to make an uncontested 15 footer. It’s actually bewildering to think about.
If you currently look at the top 13 players in the league in 3-point attempts, only Baron (3rd in the NBA in 3-point attempts) and Richardson (6th) shoot under 70 percent from the line. Heck, only Eddie Jones (74.8) and Donyell Marshall (73.3) shoot under 75 percent.
If you’re a guard-oriented team, you have to make your free-throws. It’s that simple. (Ok, I think I’ve made my point. I better move on before I get angry.)
Frontcourt rotations: The frontcourt has been pretty non-existent for the most part. Diogu had a brief stint in the starting lineup, but he was playing center. I like what Montgomery has done recently, trying to keep Ike at power forward while Andris Biedrins is the backup center to Adonal Foyle.
I don’t like the Murphy/Diogu frontcourt. For whatever mismatches they are supposed to create on offense, they kill you on defense and on the boards. Neither player rebounds as well from the five spot, not to mention they’re both undersized centers.
And though I like the recent substitution pattern, the backups (Diogu and Biedrins) are not getting enough minutes, especially Biedrins, which brings me to my next point.
More Minutes For Biedrins:. I know I’m the president of the Andris Biedrins Fan Club, but I don’t understand his lack of playing time (10.5 minutes for the year). He’s averaging 2.2 fouls in his 10 minutes, so I understand why he doesn’t play 30 minutes.
But for all the “he can’t stay in the game” talk, why not just give him minutes while he’s in foul trouble? Every time he picks up a couple quick fouls, he’s shelved for the rest of the game. What is Montgomery saving him for? Triple OT?
He’s not a critical guy to have on the floor at the end of games so there’s no use in saving him. In other words, if he picks up his fourth foul, let him play through it. The worse than can happen is he’ll foul out. (By the way, how many times has he actually fouled out this year? I didn’t want to waste my time looking it up, but I’d guess between 0-2.)
Biedrins gives the team an energy they lack. He’s only 19 and has a long way to go, but when he’s in the game he provides the Warriors with size, hustle, and most importantly, extra possessions – he is by far the team’s best offensive rebounder.
Actually, he’s the team’s best rebounder if you break it down per minute. Murphy and Foyle average one rebound every 3.8 minutes, second only to Biedrins one per every 3.7. Biedrins also tips the ball and keeps plays alive much more often than Murphy and Foyle do.
He does many things that don’t show up in the stat book more often than any other big man on the team (with the possible exception of Taft).
He’s also shown he can make that lefty jump hook when he gets position, not to mention he can catch Baron’s passes. He’s no Duncan in the low post, but he’s no worse than Foyle.
Play the kid and let him get better.
Rebounding: This has obviously been a weakness all year (they rank 27th in rebound differential), particularly when it comes to clearing the defensive glass. Murphy has stepped it up lately and become the “old” Troy, but the Warriors need better fundamentals in this area. It’s amazing what one can do when he blocks out.
Murphy, by the way, is the biggest offender when it comes to not blocking out. It’s easier to grab more rebounds when you don’t block out. The problem is, you also give up more offensive rebounds. By blocking out, if the rebound doesn’t come to you, there’s a good chance one of your teammates will get it. (This concludes the lesson on blocking out. Join me next week when I’ll talk about the importance of setting screens).
Diogu is especially good at blocking out from what I’ve seen. He may not put up big rebounding numbers, but watch him get a body on his guy when the shot goes up.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at pjahromi@sbcglobal.net |
